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The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Heuristics and Biases . Access. PDF · Online view; Export citation. Contents. pp vii- Introduction – Heuristics and Biases: Then and Now. pp 1 - Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning. pp Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data. Heuristics and biases: the psychology of intuitive judgment / edited by Thomas. Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel . - Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin and Daniel Kahneman. Frontmatter.
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In short, they contended that under such conditions, people tend to use heuristics or decision-making shortcuts. This can lead to suboptimal decision-making. Since, much research has built upon the earlier works. Indeed, there are now two streams in the research on heuristics--one fairly optimistic, exemplified by works of scholars such as Gerd Gigerenzer, and the other more pessimistic, exemplified by this particular volume, edited by Gilovich, Griffin, and Kahneman.
The introduction sets the stage for the myriad essays making up this book. The editors note in the Preface that page xv: These heuristics typically yield accurate judgments but can lead to systematic error.
The individual essays themselves note some of the basic heuristics or decision-making shortcuts. To illustrate: Here, one takes a small number of cases and generalizes from these.
Hence, one then generalizes and concludes that all basketball players are not so smart. In short, one generalizes from a poor sample.
This is one of the roots of stereotyping, which can lead to all manner of mischief. What is at stake with the study of heuristics and biases? These raise real questions about the common assumption that humans behave rationally, using something like a cost-benefit calculus to make decisions.
This has profound implications. Much policy is based on people behaving rationally.
If that assumption is wrong, then government decisions based on a flawed view of humans' decision-making isn't likely to have the desired effects. Part Two explores new theoretical directions. One of the pluses of this volume is that it includes works by those who see heuristics as positive. For instance, an essay by Gigerenzer and colleagues makes the point that heuristics may do better as a source of decision-making than even statistical predictions.
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Part Three looks at real world applications, from "the hot hand in basketball" to an evaluation of clinical judgments to political decisions. In short, this volume covers a lot of territory. The work is not meant for Joe Six Pack. It is written by academics and may be a bit dense for some readers. But there is much at stake with the research program described in this volume. I think that many people would find the struggle to understand the arguments here as worthwhile.
I highly recommend this work. site Edition Verified download. I based a whole module of my PhD in management on this book.
Associative Processes in Intuitive Judgment
The heuristics and biases described in this book can be turned into power conversations in management to affect decisions in real world situations. With my understanding of these concepts, I can now easily detect them in management discussions, which allows me the opportunity to clarify, amplify, and simplify decision making situations.
This collection of articles has its origin in the work of one of the editors Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky now deceased in the 's. The first article in the book gives an introduction to this work and a brief historical survey. This work, along with current developments, is extremely important, for it sheds light on the differences if any between "intuitive judgment" and judgment that is based on more quantitative, mathematical, or algorithmic reasoning.
If human judgment in uncertain environments is based on a limited number of simplifying heuristics, and not on extensive algorithmic processing, this would be very important for someone who is attempting to implement or simulate human reasoning in a machine. Economics, finance, and political decision-making are other areas that need a more accurate view of human judgment. Indeed, the "rational agent" assumption in classical economics, wherein the person makes choices by assessing the probability of each possible outcome and then assigning a utility to each, is considered to be fundamental, even axiomatic.
It is therefore of great interest to examine challenges to this assumption. In order to test the rational agent assumption, experiments must be conducted to test whether indeed the human assessment of likelihood and risk does indeed conform to the laws of probability.
The data obtained in these experiments must then be judged as to whether it can be used to decide between the rational agent model and models of human judgment that are based on "intuition" however vaguely or mystically this latter term is defined. The authors of the first article in this book discuss some of the work on these questions, in particular the research that involved comparing expert clinical prediction with actuarial methods. The latter were found to perform better than the former.
Even more interesting is that the clinician's assessments of their abilities were very far from what the record of success actually indicated.
Some research has also indicated that intuitive judgments of likelihood do not correspond to what is obtained by Bayesian reasoning patterns.The work is not meant for Joe Six Pack.
For two alternatives, the heuristic is:  If one of two alternatives is recognized and the other not, then infer that the recognized alternative has the higher value with respect to the criterion.
Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. Studies of Wimbledon and have shown that the recognition heuristic applied by semi-ignorant amateur players predicted the outcomes of all gentlemen single games as well and better than the seatings of the Wimbledon experts who had heard of all players , as well as the ATP rankings.
Kahneman, P. This sounds like an inference, but they derive the result from a formal model of associative learning that involves no reasoning at all.
It is effectively impossible for decision makers to resist framing effects, unless they are able to generate an alternative frame and observe their inconsistency.
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